Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning
---- Acknowledgements -----
Rose is B.T. Rocca Jr. Professor of International Trade and Economic Analysis and Policy in the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, NBER Research Associate and CEPR Research Fellow. Spiegel is Vice President, Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. We thank Haibin Zhu for sharing his real estate data. Helpful comments were received from: Joshua Aizenman, David Cook, Mike Dooley, Marcel Fratzscher, Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, Kadee Russ, and seminar participants at the BIS and the APEA. Rose thanks the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for hospitality during the course of this research. Christopher Candelaria provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed below do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. A current version of this paper, key output, and the main STATA data set used in the paper are available at http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose.