TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hamilton,James D.
TI  - Understanding Crude Oil Prices
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14492
PY  - 2008
Y2  - November 2008
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14492
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14492.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James D. Hamilton
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Tel: 858/534-5986
Fax: 858/534-7040
E-Mail: jhamilton@ucsd.edu
AB  - This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices.  The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply.  Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion.  The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
ER  -