TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hong,Harrison
AU  - Scheinkman,Jose A.
AU  - Xiong,Wei
TI  - Advisors and Asset Prices: A Model of the Origins of Bubbles
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 13504
PY  - 2007
Y2  - October 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13504
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13504.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Harrison Hong
Department of Economics
Princeton University
26 Prospect Avenue
Princeton, NJ 08540
Tel: 609/258-0259
Fax: 609/258-0771
E-Mail: hhong@princeton.edu

Jose A. Scheinkman
Department of Economics
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ  08544-1021
Tel: 609/258-4020
Fax: 609/258-0771
E-Mail: joses@princeton.edu

Wei Xiong
Princeton University
Department of Economics
Bendheim Center for Finance
Princeton, NJ  08450
Tel: 609/258-0282
Fax: 609/258-0771
E-Mail: wxiong@princeton.edu
AB  - We develop a model of asset price bubbles based on the communication process between advisors and investors. Advisors are well-intentioned and want to maximize the welfare of their advisees (like a parent treats a child). But only some advisors understand the new technology (the tech-savvies); others do not and can only make a downward-biased recommendation (the old-fogies). While smart investors recognize the heterogeneity in advisors, naive ones mistakenly take whatever is said at face value. Tech-savvies inflate their forecasts to signal that they are not old-fogies, since more accurate information about their type improves the welfare of investors in the future. A bubble arises for a wide range of parameters, and its size is maximized when there is a mix of smart and naive investors in the economy. Our model suggests an alternative source for stock over-valuation in addition to investor overreaction to news and sell-side bias.
ER  -