NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz

NBER Working Paper No. 12200
Issued in May 2006

---- Acknowledgements -----

We would like to thank Ray Fair, Brian Galebach, Robin Hanson, Robert Hahn, Ed Kaplan, Brian Knight, Charles Manski, Marco Ottaviani, David Pennock, Erik Snowberg, Peter Norman Sørensen, Betsey Stevenson, Rob Stevenson and Abe Wickelgren for useful conversations and insights. Wolfers gratefully acknowledges the support of a Hirtle, Callaghan & Co. %u2013 Geewax, Terker and Co. Research Fellowship, Microsoft Research, the Mack Center for Technological Innovation, and the support of the Zull/Lurie Real Estate Center.

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