TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chang,Roberto
TI  - Financial Crises and Political Crises
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 11779
PY  - 2005
Y2  - November 2005
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11779
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11779.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Roberto Chang
Rutgers University
Department of Economics
75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ  08901
Tel: 732/932-7269
Fax: 732/932-7416
E-Mail: chang@econ.rutgers.edu
AB  - This paper is an analysis of the simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises and its consequences. It focuses on a small open economy that faces a debt default decision. Crucially, this decision is made by a government that has superior information than the public about the social costs of default. Citizens can dismiss the government, and overrule its default decision, at the cost of a political crisis. If there is a divergence between the objectives of the government and its people, a political crisis may emerge in equilibrium. For this to be the case, the foreign debt must be large enough, and international reserves low. When this political equilibrium is seen as a part of a larger investment problem, there are equilibria in which crises are "only financial," and equilibria in which both default and political crises occur. In some cases, these two kinds of equilibria coexist and, in this sense, a loss of confidence by foreign lenders can exacerbate the likelihood of a political crisis. If so, international intervention in financial markets may ensure financial and political stability at little cost.
ER  -