@techreport{NBERw11024,
 title = "Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings",
 author = "Flavio Cunha and James J. Heckman and Salvador Navarro",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "11024",
 year = "2005",
 month = "January",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w11024",
 abstract = {This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable. This has important implications for using measured variability to price risk and predict college attendance.},
}