TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bordo,Michael D.
AU  - Haubrich,Joseph G
TI  - The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10431
PY  - 2004
Y2  - April 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10431
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10431.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael D. Bordo
Department of Economics
Rutgers University
New Jersey Hall
75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
Tel: 732/822-7152
Fax: 732/932-7416
E-Mail: bordo@econ.rutgers.edu

Joseph G. Haubrich
Federal Reserve Bank ofCleveland
1455 East 6th Street
Cleveland, Ohio 44114
Tel: 216/579-2000
E-Mail: jhaubrich@clev.frb.org
AB  - This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability.
ER  -