TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rose,Andrew K.
TI  - Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10207
PY  - 2004
Y2  - January 2004
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10207
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10207.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Andrew K. Rose
Haas School of Business Administration
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900
Tel: 510/642-6609
Fax: 510/642-4700
E-Mail: arose@haas.berkeley.edu
AB  - I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.
ER  -