TY  - JOUR
AU  - Wolfers,Justin
TI  - Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 10014
PY  - 2003
Y2  - October 2003
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10014
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w10014.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Justin Wolfers
Business and Public Policy Department
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
3620 Locust Walk
Room 1456 Steinberg-Deitrich Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6372
Tel: (215) 898-3013
Fax: (215) 898-7635
E-Mail: jwolfers@wharton.upenn.edu
AB  - Application of the Coase Theorem to marital bargaining suggests that shifting from a consent divorce regime to no-fault unilateral divorce laws should not affect divorce rates. Each iteration of the empirical literature examining the evolution of divorce rates across US states has yielded different conclusions about the effects of divorce law liberalization. I show that these results reflect a failure to jointly consider both the political endogeneity of these divorce laws and the dynamic response of divorce rates to a shock to the political regime. Taking explicit account of the dynamic response of divorce rates to the policy shock, I find that liberalized divorce laws caused a discernible rise in divorce rates for about a decade, but that this increase was substantially reversed over the next decade. That said, this increase explains very little of the rise in the divorce rate over the past half century. Both administrative data on the flow of new divorces, and measures of the stock of divorcees from the census support this conclusion. These results are suggestive of spouses bargaining within marriage, with an eye to their partner's divorce threat.
ER  -