TY  - JOUR
AU  - Zarnowitz,Victor
TI  - On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 229
PY  - 1978
Y2  - 1978
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0229
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w0229.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Victor Zarnowitz
Conference Board
845 3rd Avenue
New York, NY 10022-6679
Tel: 212/339-0432
Fax: 212/836-9757
E-Mail: no email available
AB  - The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.
ER  -