New NBER Research
19 December 2013
Conghui Hu and Wei Xiong find substantial positive predictive power for the overnight returns on copper and soybeans futures prices in the United States for stock prices in East Asian economies. This relationship does not appear for crude oil futures.
18 December 2013
Viral Acharya and Zhaoxia Xu find no difference between the innovative activities of publicly-traded and privately-held firms in industries that reply primarily on internal finance, but discover that in industries that depend on external finance, publicly-traded firms generate more patents, and patents of higher quality and novelty, than privately-held firms. They conclude that public listing may benefit innovation at firms in industries that rely on public capital.
17 December 2013
Jeff Larrimore, Richard Burkhauser, and Philip Armour use data from the Current Population Survey to investigate changes in the after-tax, after-transfer income of households at different points in the income distribution between 2007 and 2010. They find that in contrast to previous recessions, during the Great Recession declines in employment rather that declines in earnings were the primary driver of declining income at the median and in the bottom quintile. Government taxes and transfers played a larger role in offsetting the decline in earnings than in past recessions; for the bottom quintile, they offset more than one half of the decline in market income.
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16 December 2013
Guillermo Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli, and Pablo Ottonello study financial crises in emerging market economies to determine whether inflationary policies are successful in avoiding "jobless recoveries." While inflation does appear to accelerate the return of the unemployment rate to its pre-crisis levels, it also results in lower real wages.
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13 December 2013
Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Holmes, and Jonathan Skinner identify three primary causes of the slowdown in health care cost growth in the last decade: the rise in high-deductible insurance plans, state-level efforts to control Medicaid costs, and a general slowdown in the diffusion of new technology. Despite the recent slowdown, they predict that over the next two decades, health care costs will grow 1.2 percent per year faster than GDP.
12 December 2013
Charles Horioka and Akiko Terada-Hagiwara analyze data on cash holdings of firms in eleven Asian countries between 2002 and 2011. They find that firms save more when their cash flow rises, and thereby accumulate a larger stock of cash. This is consistent with firms holding cash in order to finance future investments.
11 December 2013
Nicholas Bloom examines the variation in uncertainty over time and the economic consequences of this variation. He concludes that the jump in economic uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in GDP during the Great Recession.
10 December 2013
Lance Lochner, Todd Stinebrickner, and Utku Suleymanoglu study repayment patterns for the Canada Student Loan Program. They find that nearly all recent borrowers with annual incomes above $40,000 make standard loan repayments, while borrowers with incomes below $20,000 frequently experience repayment problems. Nevertheless, over half of low-income borrowers make timely payments; savings and family support are the most important sources of these payments.
9 December 2013
Martin Schmalz, David Sraer, and David Thesmar study the importance of home equity as a source of collateral for entrepreneurs starting new businesses. They compare the rate of new business formation in different local housing markets with different house price trajectories. In markets with large house price gains, in which homeowners have more housing equity than in less-appreciated markets, homeowners are substantially more likely than renters to become entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs with more accumulated home equity also create larger firms, and more long-lived firms, on average.
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