You may be interested in a piece that I just posted with the Project
Syndicate on the US economy. It was originally written before the GDP
figure was announced. The new GDP figures confirmed my sense that the
economy is weaker than most forecasters think. Indeed, of the 2.2 percent
GDP increase, final sales were only 1.6 percent and about 3/4 of that 1.6
percent was motor vehicles. With actual declines in government spending
and other things, the 2.2 percent was almost wholly increased consumer
spending (2.0 percent of the 2.2 ) . With the saving rate down sharply, it
is hard to see further declines in saving feeding strong consumer spending
in future quarters.
The piece is "motivated" by the relevance of the economy to the
presidential election. I feel more confident about my views on the economy
than on the link to the election -- as I indicate at the end of the piece.
Here is the link to the piece
http://www.nber.org/feldstein/projectsyndicateapril2012.pdf
Marty
Received on Mon Apr 30 2012 - 10:19:20 EDT
