NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Currency Crises: Lessons From Mexico


NBER Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Market Countries

Currency Crises: Lessons From Mexico

PROGRAM
May 6, 1999
The Charles Hotel, Cambridge, MA

Martin Feldstein and Aaron Tornell, Organizers


WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 1999:

7:30 PM Dinner

Sandrine's
8 Holyoke Street
Cambridge, MA
(617) 497-5300

THURSDAY, MAY 6, 1999:

8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

9:00 AM SESSION I. THE 1982 CRISIS AND THE SEEDS OF THE 1994 CRISIS

Chair: STEPHEN CECCHETTI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER

Panelists: ARTURO FERNANDEZ, ITAM

FRANCISCO GIL DIAZ, Avantel

ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER

ROBERTO MENDOZA, J.P. Morgan

Lessons from the privatization and deregulation episodes.

Links between banks' privatization, financial deregulation, the banking regulatory framework and the 1994 crisis.

Was the form that capital inflows took responsible for the 1994 crisis?

Was the lending boom that preceded the 1994 crisis inevitable?

10:30 AM Coffee Break

11:00 AM SESSION II. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 1994

Chair: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER

Panelists: ANDREW BERG, International Monetary Fund

AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico

PETER GARBER, Brown University and NBER

PACO YBARRA, Citicorp

Policy response to the negative shocks of early 1994.

Monetary and fiscal policy during 1994.

Off-balance sheet operations of banks and firms.

Was the crisis unavoidable?

12:30 PM Lunch

Regattabar

2:00 PM SESSION III. DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1995

Chair: ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER

Panelists: PATRICIA ARMENDARIZ, National Banking Commission

AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico

ALFREDO THORNE, J.P. Morgan

AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER

Why was the recovery in Mexico faster than in South East Asia?

Rescue of the banks: was the piecemeal strategy the right strategy?

Is the banking problem over?

Performance of the floating exchange rate regime since 1995.

3:30 PM Coffee Break

3:45 PM SESSION IV. THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE IN PERSPECTIVE

Chair: AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER

Panelists: RICARDO HAUSMANN, Inter-American Development Bank

PABLO LEME, Goldman Sachs

LILIANA ROJAS-SUAREZ, Deutsche Bank

PABLO SALAME, Goldman Sachs

MARTIN WERNER, Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico

Lessons regarding inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes.

In what respects are the Mexican and Brazilian experiences alike?

Lessons regarding deregulation of the financial sector.

Lessons regarding the desirability and implementability of capital controls.

5:15 PM Adjourn

6:00 PM Reception and Dinner

Charles Hotel

Lowell Room

Discussion: Prospects for the Future

Conference Materials

JEFFREY SACHS and AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
ANDRES VELASCO, New York University and NBER
The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?

RUDIGER DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER
ALEJANDRO WERNER, MIT
Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and No Growth

AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
Are Economic Crises Necessary for Trade Liberalization and Fiscal Reform?
The Mexican Experience

SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
The Mexican Peso Crisis: How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?

ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER
AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
The Role of Bank Restructuring From Crises: Mexico 1995-98

SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
MIGUEL A. SAVASTANO, International Monetary Fund
The Morning After: The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis

AGUSTIN CARSTENS and ALEJANDRO WERNER, Banco de Mexico
Mexico's Monetary Policy Framework under a Floating
Exchange Rate Regime

5/5/99

 
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