Currency Crises: Lessons From Mexico
NBER Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Market Countries
May 6, 1999
Currency Crises: Lessons From MexicoPROGRAMThe Charles Hotel, Cambridge, MA Martin Feldstein and Aaron Tornell, Organizers WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 1999: 7:30 PM Dinner Sandrine's
THURSDAY, MAY 6, 1999: 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast 9:00 AM SESSION I. THE 1982 CRISIS AND THE SEEDS OF THE 1994 CRISIS Chair: STEPHEN CECCHETTI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER Panelists: ARTURO FERNANDEZ, ITAM FRANCISCO GIL DIAZ, Avantel ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER ROBERTO MENDOZA, J.P. Morgan Lessons from the privatization and deregulation episodes. Links between banks' privatization, financial deregulation, the banking regulatory framework and the 1994 crisis. Was the form that capital inflows took responsible for the 1994 crisis? Was the lending boom that preceded the 1994 crisis inevitable? 10:30 AM Coffee Break 11:00 AM SESSION II. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 1994 Chair: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER Panelists: ANDREW BERG, International Monetary Fund AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico PETER GARBER, Brown University and NBER PACO YBARRA, Citicorp Policy response to the negative shocks of early 1994. Monetary and fiscal policy during 1994. Off-balance sheet operations of banks and firms. Was the crisis unavoidable? 12:30 PM Lunch Regattabar 2:00 PM SESSION III. DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1995 Chair: ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER Panelists: PATRICIA ARMENDARIZ, National Banking Commission AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico ALFREDO THORNE, J.P. Morgan AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER Why was the recovery in Mexico faster than in South East Asia? Rescue of the banks: was the piecemeal strategy the right strategy? Is the banking problem over? Performance of the floating exchange rate regime since 1995. 3:30 PM Coffee Break 3:45 PM SESSION IV. THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE IN PERSPECTIVE Chair: AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER Panelists: RICARDO HAUSMANN, Inter-American Development Bank PABLO LEME, Goldman Sachs LILIANA ROJAS-SUAREZ, Deutsche Bank PABLO SALAME, Goldman Sachs MARTIN WERNER, Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico Lessons regarding inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes. In what respects are the Mexican and Brazilian experiences alike? Lessons regarding deregulation of the financial sector. Lessons regarding the desirability and implementability of capital controls. 5:15 PM Adjourn 6:00 PM Reception and Dinner Charles Hotel Lowell Room Discussion: Prospects for the Future Conference Materials
JEFFREY SACHS and AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
RUDIGER DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER
AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER
SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
AGUSTIN CARSTENS and ALEJANDRO WERNER, Banco de Mexico 5/5/99 |
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