Indonesia
NBER Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Market Countries
September 15, 2000
IndonesiaPRELIMINARY PROGRAMRoyal Sonesta Hotel, Cambridge, MA Project Directors: Martin Feldstein and Jeffrey Frankel
Thursday September 14: 7:00 PM Reception and Dinner Speaker: RUDI DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER Friday September 15: 8:45 AM Continental Breakfast 9:00 AM Official Welcome 9:15 AM LIBERALIZATION AND GROWTH BEFORE 1997 Chair: JEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University and NBER Panelists: IWAN AZIS, Cornell University JOSEPH STERN, Harvard University SWATI GHOSH, World Bank RINO EFFENDI, Danareksa What were the origins of the Indonesian economic crisis? How good was Indonesia's macroeconomic policy before 1997? Did Indonesia undertake international financial liberalization too soon (i.e., ahead of trade liberalization, domestic financial liberalization, strengthening regulations, etc.)? Was banking supervision clearly a problem before the crisis? 10:45 AM Break 11:00 AM SESSION 2: MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN FALL 1997 Chair: SIMON JOHNSON, MIT Panelists: J. SOEDRADJAD DJIWANDONO, formerly Bank Indonesia DAVID LIPTON, Moore Capital Strategy Group JOSHUA FELMAN, IMF STEVE RADELET, US Treasury Was the initial macroeconomic policy response appropriate? Was the Indonesian rupiah initially overvalued? After the Thai crisis of July 1997, Indonesia widened its currency bands but still suffered a severe depreciation. Why? What does this say about the new conventional wisdom that narrow bands are unsustainable? What was the role of the IMF? Did it in any sense cause or exacerbate the crisis? Was the IMF program poorly designed? 12:30 PM Lunch Speaker: HARUHIKO KURODA, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Japan 1:45 PM SESSION 3: BANKING (AND BROADER ISSUES OF INSTITUTIONS) Chair: STEVE RADELET, US Treasury Panelists: BAMBANG SUBIANTO, formerly Indonesian Ministry of Finance LLOYD KENWARD, formerly World Bank YUNG CHUL PARK, University of Korea ERNEST STERN, JP Morgan Was it appropriate and helpful to close banks in fall 1997? Did the IMF get this right? What were the alternatives? When did corporate governance problems really become evident? Was there anything that could have been done to mitigate their effects? To what extent can the severity of the Indonesian crisis be ascribed to institutional weaknesses of any kind? 3:15 PM Break 3:30 PM SESSION 4: ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER Chair: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER Panelists: ANWAR NASUTION, Bank Indonesia DENNIS FLANNERY, Lehman Brothers ANOOP SINGH, IMF ANDREW BERG, US Treasury Why has economic recovery been slower in Indonesia than in other Asian countries? To what extent have problems since 1998 been due primarily to the difficult political succession? Could economic policy in 1998-2000 have been better designed and implemented? What are the main macroeconomic policies and institutional reforms now required? Has the economic crisis destabilized Indonesia in a long-lasting way (e.g., through leading to ethnic conflict and separatism), or forced needed reforms? 5:00 PM Adjourn BACKGROUND INFORMATION SWATI GHOSH, World Bank MARI PANGESTU, CSIS, Jakarta Indonesia: Macro-Financial Linkages and Build up of Vulnerabilities (March 1999) LLOYD KENWARD, World Bank Accessing Vulnerability to Financial Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia (December 1999) Comments for "The Indonesian Crisis of 1997 - 1998" National Bureau of Economic Research (September 15, 2000) THE WORLD BANK Indonesia in Crisis: A Macroeconomic Update (July 16, 1998) Indonesia Sustaining High Growth with Equity (May 1997) GEOFFREY BASCAND, JOHN MCDERMOTT, and MAHMOOD PRADHAN, APD ANNE-MARIE GULDE, MAE MANFRED KOCH, FAD International Monetary Fund: Indonesia (June 20, 1997) PREPARED BY THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UNIT - HARVARD INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Quarterly Economic Report (May 1997) J.SOEDRADJAD DJWANDONO, University of Indonesia and Harvard University Bank Indonesia and the Recent Crisis IWAN AZIS, Cornell University Macroeconomic Policy and the Exchange Rate Chapter 6 "Exchange Rate, Capital Flows and Reform Sequencing in Indonesia: Policy Trend and CGE Model Application" ANWAR NASUTION, Bank Indonesia Bank Restructuring: Progress and Outlook (August 25, 2000) 09/19/00 |
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