10:49:09 From Conference Role Account to All panelists : Welcome to the Summer Institute 2020 EFCE workshop 10:58:34 From Federico Nucera to All panelists : Hello to everybody. Great to be here. 11:07:52 From lawrence christiano to Federico Nucera and all panelists : Hi Federico. Great to have you here! 11:14:16 From Thomas Philippon to All panelists : Basic question: do we know if automation is cyclical? Does it happen more in booms or in busts? Or is it flat? 11:14:37 From Thomas Philippon : Basic question: do we know if automation is cyclical? Does it happen more in booms or in busts? Or is it flat? 11:16:22 From Dirk Krueger to All panelists : I think Humlum’s JMP has evidence on robots at the firm level (it’s for Denmark, though). 11:20:44 From Tommaso Aquilante to All panelists : Question: As an alternative to IFR data can't one use import customs data for robots adoption as Acemoglu and Restrepo? 11:20:49 From Federico Mandelman to All panelists : I am aware of this paper related paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w22762.pdf 11:33:24 From Guido Lorenzoni to All panelists : Seems like automation decisions are usually made at a level higher than individual worker, say at firm or establishment level. So I am not sure how to think about how to model its effects on wage bargaining in a model in which bargaining happens with every individual worker 11:34:16 From lawrence christiano to All panelists : union bargaining? 11:35:23 From Tao Zha to All panelists : Automation decisions are even made at an industry level. So union bargaining has to be industry-dependent. 11:35:35 From Dirk Krueger to All panelists : Shouldn’t the union then also bargain over jobs/robot use? 11:36:04 From Guido Lorenzoni to All panelists : Second concern: seems like firms have a variety of ways in which to cut back on employment (re-organization, combining units…) Automation will change that menu, but not obviously it is the marginal organizational change that will affect workers’ bargaining position for many firms 11:50:46 From Zheng Liu to All panelists : Thanks to all for the questions and comments. We’d be happy to discuss more through emails 11:52:29 From Ivan Werning to All panelists : This equation seems to be slipping in that there are no expectations about future income that matter. I am confused by that. This is another margin where agents can be confused! 11:52:53 From Ivan Werning to All panelists : (e.g. my paper with Emmanuel on level-k) 11:53:07 From Ivan Werning : This equation seems to be slipping in that there are no expectations about future income that matter. I am confused by that. This is another margin where agents can be confused! 11:53:40 From lawrence christiano to All panelists : i thought there was also a cascade of inflation effects missing. maybe that is what he has in mind by ‘direct effect’. he ignores that. 11:54:02 From Michael Weber : That's a great point Ivan. We start out from the most basic Euler equation in the standard textbook HANK model. We do have survey questions on level k thinking, cognitive constraints, etc. 11:57:13 From Ivan Werning : Micheal, in general you should get expectations of income. You have to be careful not to wrongly impose that agents think their long run consumption is pinned down. They think that can save less or more (even if in GE and in future it may play out that they will not). 11:57:28 From Martin Eichenbaum to All panelists : Do consumers know what the interest rate is on their credit cards? 11:58:29 From Michael Weber : I totally agree with you Ivan. In some other waves we have elicited income expectations but so far, we haven't had a chance to exploit these. 11:59:23 From Ivan Werning : Great. I definitely think the channel of interest and inflation you do have is interesting. You can focus on that. Just pointing out that the equation you have is missing some terms! 12:00:14 From Ricardo Reis to All panelists : The Euler equation you write down is linearized. Missing is a term on precautionary savings that depends on perceived uncertainty. When you are giving them information, wouldnt that term change as well, making it hard to see the effect of interest rates alone? 12:00:21 From Dirk Krueger to All panelists : Can you tell empirically whether respondents understand the difference between nominal and real rates. My reading of the financial literacy Lit would be that many hh do not. 12:00:43 From Martin Eichenbaum to All panelists : I totally agree with Dirk 12:00:45 From Yueran Ma to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : Hi Lita, can you mute panelists when we join by default? There seem to be often background noise from people who are unmuted. 12:01:18 From Dirk Krueger to All panelists : Maybe your results can speak to this. 12:01:58 From Ivan Werning : Dirk and Marty: I agree, in very stable countries. but go to Argentina or Israel in the 80s and YOU BETCHA they get it 12:02:24 From Martin Eichenbaum to All panelists : Agree with that too. The issue is how extreme does the situation have to become 12:03:12 From Michael Weber : Great point Dirk and Marty. In our setting when we elicit nominal mortgage rates and inflation expectations, there are some interesting cross movements to treatments. Oli will talk about those later. 12:05:27 From R. Anton Braun : Can you break out the mortgage question for those who have recently purchased a home are searching for a new home or are contemplating a refinance? 12:06:18 From Michael Weber : Hi Anton, that's a great point and we can indeed do that! We do find priors are somewhat closer to the current average as of 2019 March 12:29:01 From Ricardo Reis : What led you to focus on mortgage rates? Why not credit card rates? 12:35:06 From Ricardo Reis : no problem! 12:36:39 From Ricardo Reis : My question was: in the EE, the relevant interest rate is the one the household is using to decide to spend or save $1 at the margin. Which one that is, the mortgage or the credit card rate, would matter 12:37:25 From Martin Eichenbaum to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : Is there a way to let attendees speak? 12:42:08 From Lita-NBER Staff to Martin Eichenbaum(Privately) : Yes, attendees are allowed to speak as co-host you and Larry have to ability unmute to speak. 12:43:53 From Lita-NBER Staff to All panelists : Please be reminded that the EFCE workshop is being livestream on Youtube 12:54:07 From Lita-NBER Staff to lawrence christiano(Privately) : You should be able to click on the participants. You will see the list of participants you click on unmute the participant that you want to unmute to speak. 12:55:00 From Ivan Werning to Ariel Burstein and all panelists : thanks for coming! 12:55:17 From Lita-NBER Staff to Martin Eichenbaum(Privately) : You should be able to click on the participants. You will see the list of participants you click on unmute the participant that you want to unmute to speak. 12:56:53 From Martin Eichenbaum to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : Thanks 13:04:02 From Thomas Philippon to All panelists : Would you get something a bit similar with increasing marginal costs? 13:05:28 From Ivan Werning : Thomas: Thanks for the question. We are precisely going to talk about Kimball, which is related to your question. 13:05:37 From Thomas Philippon to All panelists : ok 13:11:34 From Ariel Burstein to All panelists : is the sufficient statistic related to the reset price elasticity in the static flexible price equilibrium ? 13:11:46 From Ivan Werning : incredibly intuition Sebastian! yes, the “beta” and the markup are “giving away” or capturing these “super elasticities” already, sufficient statisccit 13:12:30 From Ivan Werning : Thanks Ariel for the question. Yes, we will use Pass Through info to put discipline. I think that’s what you are getting at. 13:12:57 From lawrence christiano to Ariel Burstein and all panelists : hi ariel! i can unmute you if you’d like to ask a question. shall i? 13:13:24 From Ivan Werning : larry: do you only do that for your students? (just kidding!) 13:13:44 From lawrence christiano to Ariel Burstein and all panelists : yup, special rule for you! ok, i unmute you? 13:15:36 From Ivan Werning : Just to add some context, I’d say 40% is a significant effect, the point is is that with CES it falls quickly with n. 13:16:01 From R. Anton Braun : It helps if people pose their questions to all panelists and attendees! 13:18:25 From Ariel Burstein to All panelists : I meant quantitatively how different is the reset price elasticity (given same prices of competitors) under sticky prices vs flex price equilibrium 13:19:40 From Ivan Werning : Ariel: OK, i’m not familiar with that concept (but maybe Olivier is), so I hope you can explain it to me and then we’ll think about it 13:20:20 From Thomas Philippon to All panelists : Make sure you mute yourself when not talking :) 13:21:28 From Ivan Werning : to be clear: this result does not say oligopoly is not important, but that it matters through this simple channel mostly: affecting the residual demand system 13:21:47 From Ivan Werning : it still matters if you think concentration N changes to understand the mapping! 13:22:34 From Thomas Philippon : I would imagine that the strategic channel would be larger when some firms are large. Large firms might have a larger strategic impact. 13:24:42 From lawrence christiano to All panelists : is there an interesting impact on the price distortion term coming from price distortion? 13:25:35 From Ivan Werning : Thanks for the question Thomas. Definitely, the figure Olivier showed showed that, but we still found relatively small strategic effects. 13:26:15 From Ivan Werning : To emphasize again that doesn’t mean concentration is not affecting, it is! As we also show, but the channel is “as if” there were just more “strategic complementarities” that look like Kimball, but an endogenous kind. 13:28:30 From Ariel Burstein to All panelists : question 13:30:20 From lawrence christiano to R. Anton Braun and all panelists : want to ask a question? 13:31:22 From Mark Gertler : Ivan - could u take a discreet time approx of the model, then generate some data and then estimate a hybrid NK PC with forward and backward inflation terms. 13:31:33 From Ivan Werning : Thanks everyone. If anyone has more questions or comments please feel free to email us! 13:31:38 From Ivan Werning : Mark: 13:31:52 From Ivan Werning : Yes, continuous time is not essential 13:31:56 From Ivan Werning : if you take small periods it will converge