10:11:19 From Lita-NBER Staff : Welcome to NBER Summer Institute 2020 EFCE 10:55:47 From Tao Zha to All panelists : Hi Larry: A lot of options such as mute etc. are absent. 10:59:41 From lawrence christiano to All panelists : can you hear now? 11:01:13 From Federico Nucera to All panelists : I would like to thank Martin and Lawrence to organize the SI despite all. Thanks. Hope to see all of you in person on next year 11:33:14 From Mark Gertler : I have a question 11:33:24 From lawrence christiano to All panelists : i have a question 11:34:11 From Gadi Barlevy : Two clarification questions from the microphone challenged: 11:35:15 From Gadi Barlevy : 1. Was non-response pattern in March and April different than usual? 2. The categories are quite coarse (-10 to +30) - is this all extrapolating from responses on extreme events and then using smoothing to get finer beliefs? 11:40:25 From Johannes Stroebel : Gadi, two quick reactions 11:40:48 From Venky Venkateswaran to All panelists : I have a question/comment 11:40:50 From Johannes Stroebel : The non-response patterns (things like response rates) were pretty similar on the metrics we track 11:41:08 From Johannes Stroebel : 2. We have two ways of asking the expected return question 11:41:15 From Johannes Stroebel : (I) Ask a point estimate 11:41:46 From Johannes Stroebel : (II) Ask probabilities for 5 buckets -- for this, as you point out, the middle bucket is wide since we wanted to focus on disaster risk. 11:41:52 From Johannes Stroebel : But mean returns we plot are from I 11:44:07 From Marco Del Negro to All panelists : question if there is time 11:44:13 From Federico Mandelman : Investors moved away from cyclical stocks towards tech (now called "defensive") stocks like amazon or Zoom. Could you recollect evidence of this composition change? 12:12:34 From Cosmin Ilut : the negative co-movement of Labor and Cons (barro-king) in the real model is because labor is an intratemporal choice. If labor becomes intertemporal, then uncertainty-adjusted expected (instead of current) return on labor matters. If that is low (because of heightened uncertainty, as here, or pessimistic beliefs), the agent may want to work less even if current marginal utility of consumption is high. This seems to be what happens here to get co-movement. 12:13:58 From Zheng Liu : Since you have wedges, aggregate TFP should fluctuate. How does TFP change in response to risk shock? 12:17:06 From Olivier Wang to All panelists : how does model vs. data look for prices? esp. real wage. Related, Karabarbounis found that most of the labor wedge fluctuations come from MRS vs real wage while here it is MPN vs real wage? He used another model to measure though so I don’t know if it goes through 12:17:17 From Olivier Wang : how does model vs. data look for prices? esp. real wage. Related, Karabarbounis found that most of the labor wedge fluctuations come from MRS vs real wage while here it is MPN vs real wage? He used another model to measure though so I don’t know if it goes through 12:33:01 From Mark Gertler : i have question 12:33:11 From Stefano Giglio to All panelists : I also have a question 12:33:13 From George-Marios Angeletos to All panelists : me too 12:37:28 From Cosmin Ilut : me too 12:47:43 From Benjamin Schoefer to All panelists : Can I ask a quick question? 13:06:57 From Tao Zha to All panelists : Hi Larry: I was kicked out and now don’t have options for mute, screen share, etc. Can you give me these options? 13:08:45 From Cosmin Ilut : how robust is mechanism to changes in assumption (or degree) of history dependence? is there a way to get the latter endogenously? 13:12:08 From Francesco Zanetti : Great question. We use HD because empirically relevant and also Schaal shows similar to a global game. The results do not depend on HD. 13:14:51 From Cosmin Ilut : if selection of eq is based on HD, in what sense results do not depend on it? 13:15:03 From Yu Yang to All panelists : Hi Cosmin, I think Fra made a typo. The results do depend on HD. 13:15:08 From Francesco Zanetti : I meant that results do depend on HD, but HD similar to global game. 13:15:28 From Francesco Zanetti : yes, it was a typo. 13:16:55 From Cosmin Ilut : I see, thanks. I think HD is very reasonable 13:23:45 From lawrence christiano to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : Hi Lita: like yesterday, I’m recording the proceedings to the cloud. Can you see that on the top right of your screen? This is what happened yesterday. I hope that the recording will be recoverable. 13:31:17 From Ivan Werning to All panelists : i think people wrote that paper 13:35:17 From Cosmin Ilut : i have a question 13:36:38 From Karl Walentin : I would like to ask about the basic asymmetry of the model: slow decline, fast recovery. This seems to be a central feature of the model, but not ideal for capturing business cycles 13:40:17 From Lita-NBER Staff to lawrence christiano(Privately) : Hi Larry-I see that the workshop is being recorded to the cloud here. It is also record to YouTube and is not saved after the meeting and deleted. I asked the NBER IT person not to delete the YouTube for this meeting and retrieve today's cloud after the meeting. We will send it to you after the meeting. Please make me host when the meeting ends. Therefore I am able to end the meeting. 13:46:44 From Zheng Liu : Was the relaxation of LTV requirement exogenous or a response to the decline in house prices prior to 2014Q4? 13:47:53 From Tao Zha to All panelists : We treated it as an MIT shock. The magnitude of this change was certainly unexpected. 13:48:11 From Tao Zha to All panelists : So was the timing. 13:49:25 From lawrence christiano to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : thank you. is it possible to retrieve yesterday’s recording that went to the NBER’s iCloud? 13:51:25 From Lita-NBER Staff to lawrence christiano(Privately) : As I mentioned to you earlier this may not be possible reason being the problem we experience yesterday. 13:51:46 From Lita-NBER Staff to lawrence christiano(Privately) : I will check and have to get back to you. 13:53:07 From lawrence christiano to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : Sorry, being an optimist, i interpreted your statement as saying that *maybe* it is possible to get yesterday’s recording! sorry to bug. 14:11:14 From lawrence christiano to Lita-NBER Staff(Privately) : i made you host 14:17:19 From Lita-NBER Staff to lawrence christiano(Privately) : Thank you 14:23:23 From Gadi Barlevy : The model assumes a fixed exogenous interest rate. But in a closed economy, relaxing LTV should increase the interest rate. What do you see empirically about interest rates in China (maybe vis-à-vis other countries)? 14:24:58 From Zheng Liu : I have a question 14:29:41 From Gadi Barlevy : Thanks M&L for organizing 14:29:57 From Zheng Liu : Thanks to Larry and Marty for organizing this great session! 14:30:02 From Francesco Zanetti : Thanks a lot! 14:30:04 From Riccardo M. Masolo to All panelists : Thanks Larry and Marty