NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.
NBER Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets
Directed By: Martin Feldstein and Jeffrey Frankel
TURKEY
Jeffrey Frankel and Dani Rodrik, Program Organizers
July 18, 2001
Royal Sonesta Hotel
5 Cambridge Parkway
Cambridge, MA
PROGRAM
TUESDAY JULY 17 :
6:30 PM RECEPTION AND DINNER
Henrietta's Table
Charles Hotel
One Bennett Street
WEDNESDAY JULY 18:
8:45 AM CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
9:00 AM OFFICIAL WELCOME
9:15 AM BACKGROUND: UP TO 1999
Chairman: JEFF FRANKEL, Harvard University and NBER
Panelists: RUSDU SARACOGLU, former governor of Turkey's central bank
TED TRUMAN, Institute for International Economics,
former Federal Reserve Board and US Treasury
ERIK NIELSEN, Goldman Sachs
RUDI DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER
11:00 AM THE STABILIZATION PROGRAM AND THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
Chairman: DANI RODRIK, Harvard University and NBER
Panelists: MAHFI EGILMEZ, former undersecy of Turkey's Treasury
CAROLINE ATKINSON, former US Treasury
GEORGE HOGUET, State Street Global Advisers
KASPER BARTHOLDY, Credit Suisse First Boston
CARLO COTTARELLI, International Monetary Fund
12:30 PM LUNCH
1:45 PM BANKING PROBLEMS, AND THE CRISIS OF FALL 2000
Chairman: MIKE DOOLEY, UC, Santa Cruz and NBER
Panelists: SELCUK DEMIRALP, former undersecretary of Turkey's Treasury
JOYCE CHANG, Chase Bank
WARREN COATS, International Monetary Fund
STEVE KAMIN, Federal Reserve Board
3:15 PM BREAK
3:30 PM THE CRISIS OF FEBRUARY 2001, AND WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Chairman: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER
Panelists: GAZI ERCEL, former head of Turkey's central bank
STEVE RADELET, US Treasury
MICHAEL DEPPLER, International Monetary Fund
PETER GARBER, Deutschebank
5:00 PM ADJOURN
BACKGROUND MATERIALS:
A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000
Faruk Selçuk and Ahmet Ertugrul February 2001
The OECD Economic Survey of Turkey January 2001
The Disinflation Program and the Structure of the Turkish Banking Sector
C. Alper, M. Berument and N. Malatyalý
Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey
Olcay Yucel Emir, Almila Karasoy, & Kursat Kunter,
Research Department of the Bank of Central Turkey
Turkey: Urgent need for large-scale foreign funding and/or domestic
insurance of dollar debt
K.Bartholdy & B.Bayazitoglu, Credit Suisse First Boston
Crunch Point: Turkey's Massive Debt, June 20, 2001
D.Malpass, T.Kearney, E.Shayo, Bear Stearns
Capital Inflows and Central Bank's Policy Response, December, 1998
M.Altinkemer, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
7/17/01