National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Korea Development Institute

China Center for Economic Research

Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Productivity Commission, Australia

Singapore Management University

Tokyo Center for Economic Research

19th Annual East Asian Seminar on Economics

The Demographic Transition in the Pacific Rim

Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose, Organizers

June 19-21, 2008

Millennium Seoul Hilton Hotel

Coral Room, 3^rd Floor

Seoul, South Korea

PROGRAM

Thursday, June 19:
8:30 am	Registration and Continental Breakfast
	Session 1: Economic Growth/Japan (Chair: Takatoshi Ito)
9:00 am	Ronald Lee, UC, Berkeley and NBER
	Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, University of Hawaii
	The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim
	Discussants: Jocelyn Finlay, Harvard University
	Jong-Wha Lee, Asian Development Bank
10:15 am	Break
10:45 am	Fumio Ohtake, Osaka University
	Shinpei Sano, Kobe University
	The Effects of Demographic Change on Public Education in Japan
	Discussants: Daeil Kim, Seoul National University
	Chang-Gyun Park, Chung Ang University
12:00 pm	Lunch
1:30 pm	Naohiro Ogawa, Amonthep Chawla, and Rikiya Matsukura, Nihon University
	Andrew Mason, University of Hawaii
	Japan’s Unprecedented Aging and Changing Intergenerational Transfers
	Discussants: Worawan Chandoevwit, TDRI
	Alejandro Herrin, Philippine Institute for Development Studies
2:45 pm	Chin Hee Hahn, KDI
	Chang-Gyun Park, Chung-Ang University
	Demographic Transition, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Cross-Country and Korean Micro Data
	Discussants: Meng-Chun Liu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
	Chulhee Lee, Seoul National University
4:00 pm	Break
4:30 pm	Meng-Chun Liu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
	Gee San, National Central University
	Population Aging and Industrial Competitiveness: The Case of the Electronics Industry in Taiwan
	Discussants: Francis Lui, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
	Jinyoung Kim, Korea University
5:45 pm	Adjourn
6:00 pm	Welcome Dinner - Hosted by Jung Taik Hyun, President, KDI
	Millennium Seoul Hilton Hotel – Topaz Room (3^rd Floor)
Friday, June 20:
8:30 am	Continental Breakfast
	Session 2: Country Studies (Chair: Andrew Rose)
9:00 am	Peta Furnell, Harry Greenwell, and Julie Tinnion, Australian Treasury
	Population Aging and Higher Net Migration: Implications for Australian Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections
	Discussants: Douglas Almond, Columbia University and NBER
	Noriyuki Takayama, Hitotsubashi University
10:15 am	Break
10:45 am	Chulhee Lee, Seoul National University
	Labor-Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955-2005
	Discussants: Kyungsoo Choi, KDI
	Fumio Ohtake, Osaka University
12:00 pm	Lunch
	Session 3: Transfers (Chair: Kwang Eon Sul)
1:30 pm	Noriyuki Takayama, Hitotsubashi University
	Pension Issues in Japan: How Can We Cope with the Declining Population? Figures
	Discussants: Worawan Chandoevwit, TDRI
	Hyung Pyo Moon, KDI
2:45 pm	Hisam Kim, KDI
	Intergenerational Transfers and Old-Age Security in Korea
	Discussants: Jiyeun Chang, Korea Labor Institute
	Peta Furnell, Australian Treasury
4:00 pm	Break
4:30 pm	Douglas Almond, Columbia University and NBER
	Lena Edlund, Columbia University
	Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University
	Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong
	Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Development: Evidence from the 1959-1961 China Famine
	Discussants: Ronald Lee, UC, Berkeley and NBER
	Naohiro Ogawa, Nihon University
5:45 pm	Adjourn
6:00 pm	Dinner
	Sam Won Garden Restaurant
	Apgujung-dong, Seoul
Saturday, June 21:
8:30 am	Continental Breakfast
	Session 4: Economic Growth 2 (Chair: Andrew Rose)
9:00 am	David Bloom, Harvard University and NBER
	David Canning and Jocelyn Finlay, Harvard University
	Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia
	Discussants Roberto Mariano, Singapore Management University
	Kwanho Shin, Korea University
10:15 am	Break
10:45 am	Francis Lui, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
	Demographic Transition, Childless Families and Economic Growth
	Discussants: Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University
	Roberto Mariano, Singapore Management University
12:00 pm	Lunch and Adjourn

Format:

30 minutes - author presentation

15 minutes - discussant 1

15 minutes - discussant 2

10 minutes - general discussion

5 minutes - author response

6/18/08