NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Ray C. Fair

Contact and additional information for this authorAll papers and publicationsWorking Papers onlyWorking Papers with publication info

Working Papers

February 1992The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics
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Published: The Business Cycles: Theories and Evidence, (Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), edited by Michael T. Belognia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, pp. 133-147, Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992

October 1991Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations
with John B. Taylor: t0078

Published: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 5, pp. 381-392, (1990).

August 1991Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation
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Published:

June 1991How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?
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Published: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, no. 1 (1994): 103-118.

March 1990The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well
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Published: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 353-370, (1989).

October 1989Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints
with Donald W.K. Andrews: t0079

Published: Journal of Econometrics, Vol.53, No. 1-3, pp. 123-139 July-Sept 1992

September 1989Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
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Published: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, no. 1 (1993): 8-18.

July 1989Does Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Versus Structural Approaches
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February 1988The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
with Robert J. Shiller: w2503

Published: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LXXI, No. 2, pp. 325-331,(May 1989).

1988VAR Models as Structural Approximations
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June 1987Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations
with Kathryn M. Dominguez: w2280

Published: The American Economic Review, Vol. 81, No. 5, pp. 1276-1294, (December 1991).

May 1987Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
with Robert J. Shiller: w2233

Published: "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models." From The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. 375-389, (June 1990).

April 1987The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update
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Published: Political Behavior, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 168-179, (1988).

1987Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model
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Published: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.XXII, No.2, pp.301-315, September 1988.

December 1986Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale
with Matthew D. Shapiro, Kathryn M. Dominguez: w2095

Published:

  • The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 4, pp. 595-612, (September 1988). ,
  • Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.

Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination
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International Evidence on the Demand for Money
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Published: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LXIX, No. 3, pp. 473-480, (August 1987).

Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model
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Published: "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States." From The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CIII, No. 2, pp. 313-332, (May 1988).

1986Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Targeting
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September 1984The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models
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Published: Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. no 718

June 1984Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation
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Published: Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.

March 1984Excess Labor and the Business Cycle
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Published: Fair, Ray C. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle." American Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 1, (March 1985), pp.239-245.

Effect of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity
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July 1981A Comment on Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz Lecture
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June 1981Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares
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Published: (Published as "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Changes in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy) American Economic Review, Vol. 71, no. 2(1981): 160-165.

May 1981Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages amongCountries
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Published: Fair, Ray C. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries." Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 90, No. 3, (June 1982), pp. 507-535.

October 1980Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models
with John B. Taylor: t0005

Published: Fair, Ray C. and John B. Taylor. "Solution and Maximun Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models." Econometrica, Vol. 51 , No. 4, (July 1983), pp. 1169-1185.

August 1980Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy
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Published: Fair, Ray C. "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy." The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, (May 1981), pp. 160-165.

December 1979A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised)
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Published: Fair, Ray C. Part of: "Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Harvard University Press, (1984).

October 1973A Comparison of FIML and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model
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Published: Fair, Ray C. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models." Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 3, No. 4, (October 1974), pp. 667-677.

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