NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Paolo Surico

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Working Papers

December 2014Federal Transfer Multipliers. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil
with Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou: w20751
According to Brazilian law, federal transfers to municipal governments change discontinuously at numerous predetermined population thresholds. We employ a 'fuzzy' regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of federal transfers on local economic activity. The analysis points to local fiscal multipliers between 1.4 and 1.8 across a range of specifications that control for fixed municipal characteristics, national business cycle and monetary policy. In line with the predictions of a currency union model, transfers from the federal government tend to be more effective for municipalities in states less open to trade and in areas where financial constraints are likely to be tighter.
September 2010Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
with Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca Antonio Ricci: w16374
The paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment, for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

 
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