NBER Working Papers by Mila Getmansky

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Working Papers

July 2010Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors
with Monica Billio, Andrew W. Lo, Loriana Pelizzon: w16223
We propose several econometric measures of systemic risk to capture the interconnectedness among the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power for the current financial crisis. Our results suggest that hedge funds can provide early indications of market dislocation, and systemic risk arises from a complex and dynamic network of relationships among hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, and brokers.

Published: Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors, Monica Billio, Mila Getmansky, Andrew W. Lo, Loriana Pelizzon. in Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk, Carey, Kashyap, Rajan, and Stulz. 2012

March 2005Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds
with Nicholas Chan, Shane M. Haas, Andrew W. Lo: w11200
Systemic risk is commonly used to describe the possibility of a series of correlated defaults among financial institutions---typically banks---that occur over a short period of time, often caused by a single major event. However, since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, it has become clear that hedge funds are also involved in systemic risk exposures. The hedge-fund industry has a symbiotic relationship with the banking sector, and many banks now operate proprietary trading units that are organized much like hedge funds. As a result, the risk exposures of the hedge-fund industry may have a material impact on the banking sector, resulting in new sources of systemic risks. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the potential impact of hedge funds on systemic risk by develop...


March 2003An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity in Hedge Fund Returns
with Andrew W. Lo, Igor Makarov: w9571
The returns to hedge funds and other alternative investments are often highly serially correlated in sharp contrast to the returns of more traditional investment vehicles such as long-only equity portfolios and mutual funds. In this paper, we explore several sources of such serial correlation and show that the most likely explanation is illiquidity exposure, i.e., investments in securities that are not actively traded and for which market prices are not always readily available. For portfolios of illiquid securities, reported returns will tend to be smoother than true economic returns, which will understate volatility and increase risk-adjusted performance measures such as the Sharpe ratio. We propose an econometric model of illiquidity exposure and develop estimators for the smoothing pro...

Published: Getmansky, Mila, Andrew W. Lo and Igor Makarov. "An Econometric Model Of Serial Correlation And Illiquidity In Hedge Fund Returns," Journal of Financial Economics, 2004, v74(3,Dec), 529-609. citation courtesy of

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