NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Working Papers by Angela Merrill

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Working Papers

December 1999Predictors of Mortality Among the Elderly
with Michael Hurd, Daniel McFadden: w7440
The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.

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