NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Paolo Surico

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

Working Papers and Chapters

December 2014Federal Transfer Multipliers. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil
with Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou: w20751
According to Brazilian law, federal transfers to municipal governments change discontinuously at numerous predetermined population thresholds. We employ a 'fuzzy' regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of federal transfers on local economic activity. The analysis points to local fiscal multipliers between 1.4 and 1.8 across a range of specifications that control for fixed municipal characteristics, national business cycle and monetary policy. In line with the predictions of a currency union model, transfers from the federal government tend to be more effective for municipalities in states less open to trade and in areas where financial constraints are likely to be tighter.
June 2012Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
with Timothy Besley, Neil Meads
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, Daron Acemoglu, Jonathan Parker, and Michael Woodford, editors
This paper uses data on about 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function that allows for heterogeneity in risk pricing. The results for the period 1975-2005 are suggestive of significant price heterogeneity with riskier borrowers increasingly penalized for borrowing more. A sub-sample analysis, however, reveals that the period before the financial crisis was characterized by a sharp fall in risk pricing and little evidence of heterogeneity, consistent with a relaxation of credit conditions.
September 2010Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
with Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca Antonio Ricci: w16374
The paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment, for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers onlyInformation about this author at RePEc

 
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