NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Paolo Surico

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Working Papers and Chapters

June 2012Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
with Timothy Besley, Neil Meads
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, Daron Acemoglu, Jonathan Parker, and Michael Woodford, editors
This paper uses data on about 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function that allows for heterogeneity in risk pricing. The results for the period 1975-2005 are suggestive of significant price heterogeneity with riskier borrowers increasingly penalized for borrowing more. A sub-sample analysis, however, reveals that the period before the financial crisis was characterized by a sharp fall in risk pricing and little evidence of heterogeneity, consistent with a relaxation of credit conditions.
September 2010Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
with Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca Antonio Ricci: w16374
The paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment, for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.

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