NBER Publications by Charles Redlick

For U.S. annual data that include WWII, the estimated multiplier for defense spending is 0.6-0.7 at the median unemployment rate. There is some evidence that this multiplier rises with the extent of economic slack and reaches 1.0 when the unemployment rate is around 12%. Multipliers for non-defense purchases cannot be reliably estimated because of the lack of good instruments. For samples that begin in 1950, increases in average marginal income-tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have a significantly negative effect on real GDP. Increases in taxes seem to reduce real GDP with mainly a one-year lag due to income effects and mostly a two-year lag due to substitution (tax-rate) effects. Since the defense-spending multiplier is typically less than one, greater spending...

Social capital is often place-specific while schooling is portable, so the prospect of migration may reduce the returns to social capital and increase the returns to schooling. If social capital matters for urban success, it is possible that an area can get caught in a bad equilibrium where the prospect of out-migration reduces social capital investment and a lack of social capital investment makes out-migration more appealing. We present a simple model of that process and then test its implications. We find little evidence to suggest that social capital is correlated with either area growth or rates of out-migration. We do, however, find significant differences in the returns to human capital across space, and a significant pattern of skilled people disproportionately leaving declinin...