NBER Publications by Robert Michael

This paper focuses on the causes of divorce. Section I developsa theoretical analysis of marital dissolution incorporating uncertaintyabout the outcomes of marital decisions into a framework of utilitymaximization and the marriage market. Section II explores the implica-tions of the theoretical analysis with cross-sectional data,primarilythe 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity and the Terman sample. Therelevance of both the theoretical and empirical analyses in explainingthe recent acceleration in the U.S. divorce rate is discussed.

Within the past few years, renewed interest in understanding marital behavior has resulted in a number of studies which focus on an equation estimating the probability of divorce or remarriage. This paper reports on one such effort. It offers a brief rationale for and an estimation of probability functions for divorce rates at specific lengths of marriage duration for a very unrepresentative sample of American women -- a group of geniuses. The data are from the "Terman sample" of some 671 women selected in 1921 (together with a comparable group of men) by psychologist Lewis N. Terman. The sample was chosen from children enrolled in California schools in urban areas. It included children, preselected by their teachers, whose measured IQ was 135 or above. The sample thus represented students...