NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

16 November 2017

Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash?

Extremely large stock market declines are typically followed by positive returns, but this is not true for smaller declines, according to a study by William N. Goetzmann and Dasol Kim of 101 global stock markets from 1698 to 2015.

15 November 2017

Deposit Insurance and Depositor Monitoring:
Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Creation of the FDIC

Before federal deposit insurance was created, regular depositors in banks reacted more to news about banks’ balance sheets and economic aggregates than did preferred depositors, research by Haelim Park Anderson, Gary Richardson, and Brian S. Yang finds. After deposit insurance came into being this difference diminished, but the insurance did not entirely eliminate depositor monitoring of balance sheets.

14 November 2017

March Madness: NCAA Tournament Participation
Linked to Rise in Longterm College Alcohol Use

A school’s participation in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is associated with a 30 percent increase in binge drinking and a 9 percent increase in self-reported drunk driving by male students at that school, an analysis by Dustin R. White, Benjamin W. Cowan, and Jadrian Wooten finds.

13 November 2017

Impacts of Early Life Access to the Safety Net
on the Health of Future Generations

The health benefits realized in utero by individuals whose mothers benefited from 1980s Medicaid expansions targeting low-income pregnant women extend to later offspring in the form of higher average birth weight and decreased incidence of very low birth weight, research by Chloe N. East, Sarah Miller, Marianne Page, and Laura R. Wherry finds.

10 November 2017

International Evidence on Stock Return Anomalies

Xiaomeng Lu, Robert F. Stambaugh, and Yu Yuan find significant positive excess returns to nine prominent U.S. return anomalies in stock return data from Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the U.K.

9 November 2017

Search Engines and Data Retention:
Implications for Privacy and Antitrust

Lesley Chiou and Catherine Tucker study the length of time that search engines retained their server logs, and find that possession of historical data confers only a modest advantage for maintaining market share and that it does not significantly affect the accuracy of search.

8 November 2017

Who Owns the Wealth in Tax Havens?
Macro Evidence and Implications for Global Inequality

About 10 percent of world GDP is held in tax havens. Because offshore wealth is very concentrated at the top, accounting for it increases estimates of the top 0.01 percent’s wealth share substantially in Europe, even in countries that do not use tax havens extensively, according to a study by Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, and Gabriel Zucman.

7 November 2017

The Effects of Graduation Requirements
on Risky Health Behaviors of High School Students

An increase in mathematics and science high school graduation requirements has significant negative impacts on alcohol consumption among high-school students, especially males and non-white students, a study by Zhuang Hao and Benjamin W. Cowan finds.

6 November 2017

How Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy

Does an expansion in credit supply affect the economy by increasing productive capacity, or by boosting demand? Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner find that the stronger expansion in credit supply in early bank deregulation states primarily boosted local demand, especially by households.

3 November 2017

Market Power, Production (Mis)Allocation and OPEC

Working with rich micro-data covering the global market for crude oil from 1970 to 2014, John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler, and Jan De Loecker find that productive misallocation attributable to market power exerted by the OPEC ranged from 14.1 percent to 21.9 percent of the total productive inefficiency, or $105 billion to $163 billion.
 
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