18 April 2017
In contrast to conventional wisdom that early industrialization involved declining demand for skills, a study of regional variations in the adoption of steam engines across France, by Raphaël Franck
and Oded Galor
, finds that the Industrial Revolution was conducive to human capital formation, generating wide-ranging gains in literacy rates and educational attainment.
17 April 2017
The mortgage market share of shadow banks – non-bank lenders that are not funded by deposits – has nearly tripled since 2007. Research by Greg Buchak
, Gregor Matvos
, Tomasz Piskorski
, and Amit Seru
finds that shadow banks were significantly more likely to enter markets where traditional banks faced more regulatory constraints. “Fintech” shadow banks, which rely more on technology and data analysis than their traditional counterparts, accounted for almost a third of shadow bank loan originations by 2015. The authors conclude that increasing regulatory burden faced by traditional banks can account for about 55 percent of recent shadow bank growth; emerging financial technology can account for another 35 percent.
14 April 2017
, Christopher J. Ruhm
, and Kosali Simon
find that a one percentage point increase in the U.S. unemployment rate is associated with a 3.6 percent rise in the opioid death rate and a 7.0 percent rise in the rate of emergency room visits.
13 April 2017
, Andrei Shleifer
, and Yang You
present new evidence on stock price dynamics. They find that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low future returns, but that it does predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash. They conclude that some attributes of the price run-up, including volatility and turnover, also help forecast an eventual crash and future returns.
12 April 2017
Coal states have enacted policies that effectively encourage local power plants to purchase from within-state mines, according to research by Jonathan Eyer
and Matthew E. Kahn
. A one-percentage point increase in the proportion of coal plants in a NERC region with an in-state coal mine is associated with approximately 2.3 million additional annual tons of CO2 emissions.