NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

20 October 2017

The Evolution of Corporate Cash

John R. Graham and Mark T. Leary find that the increase in average corporate cash ratios since 1980 is driven entirely by a shift in the cash policies of new firms: within-firm changes in cash holdings have been negative or flat since World War II.

19 October 2017

Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability

Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko finds that government spending shocks associated with activist discretionary fiscal policy do not lead to persistent increases in debt-to-GDP ratios or costs of borrowing.

18 October 2017

Early Childhood Health Shocks and Adult Wellbeing:
Evidence from Wartime Britain

A study of England and Wales at the onset of World War II by Jeffrey C. Schiman, Robert Kaestner, and Anthony T. Lo Sasso finds that individuals born in areas with higher infant mortality exhibited higher likelihood of disability, lower probability of employment, and less earned income later in life.

17 October 2017

Inter-State Diversion of Recreational Marijuana

Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber measure cross-state-border purchases of marijuana by studying sales in Washington state, where marijuana was legal, before and after Oregon legalized sales in 2015. In-Washington sales along the Oregon border dropped 41 percent; there were no changes in sales along Washington’s borders with Idaho and Canada.

16 October 2017

Public Insurance Increases Prescription
of Psychotropic Medications for Mental Illness

Recent eligibility expansions within Medicaid increased psychotropic prescriptions for mental illnesses by 22 percent, Johanna Catherine Maclean, Benjamin L. Cook, Nicholas Carson, and Michael F. Pesko find.

13 October 2017

The U.S. Treasury Premium

The “U.S. Treasury Premium” — the gap between the FX swap-implied dollar yield paid by foreign governments and the U.S. Treasury dollar yield — was approximately 21 basis points for five-year bonds prior to the global financial crisis, increased to 90 basis points during the crisis, and has since disappeared, with the post-crisis mean at -8 basis points, according to calculations by Wenxin Du, Joanne Im, and Jesse Schreger.

12 October 2017

Management, Supervision, and Health Care

Results of a randomized field experiment in 80 primary health care centers in Nigeria indicate that sustained supervision is crucial for achieving persistent managerial improvements. Felipe A. Dunsch, David K. Evans, Ezinne Eze-Ajoku, and Mario Macis report that centers which received a detailed improvement plan and nine months of implementation support saw significant improvements but that virtually no effects remained one year later.

11 October 2017

Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative

An analysis by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal shows that credit growth between 2001 and 2007 was not concentrated in the subprime sector. Rather, the rise in mortgage defaults during the crisis was concentrated in the middle of the credit score distribution, and mostly attributable to real estate investors.

10 October 2017

Slicing the Pie: Quantifying Aggregate
and Distributional Effects of the China Shock

Using the structural relationship between changes in manufacturing employment associated with rising trade with China and average earnings across U.S. groups, Simon Galle, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, and Moises Yi find that the “China shock” increases average welfare. For some groups, however, losses are as high as five times the average gain.

6 October 2017

The Impact of Price Caps and Spending Cuts
on U.S. Postsecondary Attainment

Spending taxpayer dollars improving the quality of the college experience is more effective than spending them to lower tuition prices in increasing postsecondary attainment, a study by David J. Deming and Christopher R. Walters shows. They find large enrollment and degree-completion impacts from funding improvements, and no impact from lowering prices.
 
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